COUNTRY - 1
March 4, 2026
All Indexes — Combined Forecast Overview
Political
Resilience-0.06
Political-0.18
Economic+0.24
Social -0.65
Technological +0.52
Environmental-0.65
Inner: 50% Confidence Interval
Outer: 90% Confidence Interval
Decision Making Intelligence:
Current Score
-0.18
+0.04 MoM
1Y Forecast
+0.12
Improving
Confidence
68%
Model score
Overall Top Driving Factors
Stable internal security environment, fostering confidence and reducing incentives for violence.

Low corruption & credible anti-corruption reform contribute to a more predictable and stable environment.

Increased investment in national infrastructure projects correlates with decreased predicted conflict escalation.
Signals to Watch
High military investment, potentially escalating regional tensions and diverting resources.

Militarization of politics raises the risk of escalated tensions and potential for conflict.

Weak Rule of Law undermines legal certainty and impartial justice.
Security Reform Military Spending Rule of Law Infrastructure Regional Dynamics
Saudi Arabia is forecast to maintain an increasing state of peacefulness over the next two years, remaining classified as VULNERABLE. The initial forecast of UNSTABLE, despite improving indicators, reflects a baseline of significant underlying risks. Over the 1-month horizon, positive drivers – internal security, constructive diplomatic engagement and economic stabilisation – contribute to marginal improvements. The 1-year forecast projects a sustained upward trajectory.
All Index Scores
Political
-0.18
Economic
+0.24
Social
-0.65
Technological
+0.52
Environmental
+0.24
Similar Countries
CNCountry-1
-0.12
CNCountry-2
-0.22
CNCountry-3
+0.08
CNCountry-4
-0.28
Primary Drivers
Political
1 Month

TOP DRIVING FACTORS: ▪ Infant mortality rate ▪ Measures the likelihood of a political event occurring ▪ The IMF's pork commodity price

TOP CONCERNS: ▪ Likelihood of child mortality in low-income countries ▪ Cooperation between governments or international organizations ▪ A widely used economic indicator measuring the

1 Year

TOP DRIVING FACTORS: ▪ Increased political event classification requests suggest heightened civic engagement and institutional responsiveness. ▪ Declining deaths from conflicts involving non-state actors indicate improved security and conflict resolution efforts. ▪ Lower likelihood of armed conflict, as predicted by statistical models, points to a stabilizing security environment.

2 Years

TOP DRIVING FACTORS: ▪ Strengthening democratic institutions, evidenced by increased electoral competitiveness, civil liberties, and rule of law, contribute to a more stable environment. ▪ A decline in fatalities from dominant-side violence signals reduced intensity of armed conflict and improved security. ▪ Sufficient water availability for agriculture and ecosystems supports livelihoods and reduces resource-based tensions.

Economic Indicators
GDP Growth+3.2%
Inflation Rate2.8%
Unemployment7.1%
FDI Inflows ($B)$9.8B
Current Acct (%GDP)+4.2%
Oil Revenue ($B)$162B
Governance & Rule of Law
Corruption Perception52/100
Press Freedom Index165/180
Judicial Independence3.2/10
E-Gov Index0.82
Rule of Law0.41
Political Stability0.28
Security Metrics
Military Spending (%GDP)6.0%
Internal Conflict RiskMedium
Terrorism Index3.8/10
Border SecurityEnhanced
Cybersecurity Score0.74
Regional Conflict Expo.High
Social & Human Development
HDI Score0.875
Life Expectancy76.9 yrs
Literacy Rate97.6%
Gender Inequality Idx0.274
Youth Unemployment16.4%
Population (M)36.4M
Jan 2024
-0.18
Political Index
▲ +0.04 MoM